FOMC decision engine · dbot-fomc-1.3.0
Three scores. Combined only here, and a missing score is left empty. It is not filled with zero.
Policy fundamentals
—
HTML not verified. No policy score.
Market pricing
—
CME FedWatch only. Not connected.
Market confirmation
—
Needs a frozen 1:59:59 baseline. That freeze was missed.
Final layer
— NO SIGNAL
The official HTML is not verified yet. No policy score is shown. No trading signal.
Families with an input: 0 of 3. Confidence 0.0% is that coverage, not a probability.
CME market-implied vs DBOT model
CME market-implied
Not connected
CME FedWatch is an OAuth REST feed. No API ID is saved, so market-implied odds stay empty. Reuters and the minutes are not a substitute, and the public website is not scraped.
Gap versus DBOT: cannot compute. The parser does not write this column.
DBOT model · policy only
October hike likelihood —
December hike likelihood —
October likelihood = 1 / (1 + e^−((policy − 80) / 30)). December = 1 / (1 + e^−((policy − 10) / 40)). Policy is the minutes lexicon when the HTML is verified, otherwise the pre-parse rubric. Not CME FedWatch.
Not run until the official HTML verifies. The rubric is a different scale and is not shown as a probability. Not a futures price.
Last week’s odds clocks are off this card. The live odds line is the Oct 12 OIS snapshot: 74% hold, 26% hike. Not CME FedWatch, and not an input to the minutes score.
Document validation
MINUTES SOURCE NOT VERIFIED
MINUTES SOURCE NOT VERIFIED. No trading signal is generated.
- Domain
- federalreserve.gov
- Meeting
- 2026-09-15 / 2026-09-16
- Release
- 2026-10-07 14:00 ET
- Last-Modified
- Tue, 03 Nov 2026 19:35:37 GMT
- SHA-256
- 0f2e0c37b323f186
- Status
- unverified
- Page does not carry the October 7, 2026 release date
- Release header is not October 7, 2026
News copy is not the primary text. The PDF fallback is not wired. A failed check does not fall through to a headline.
Fed information set · September 16
- All participants supported the 25bp hike to 3.75–4%.
- Inflation remained elevated. Almost all saw inflation risks to the upside.
- Medium- and longer-term expectations were consistent with 2%.
- Labor was close to maximum employment. Risks were broadly balanced.
- Most participants: another increase would likely be appropriate by year end. Not an October commitment.
- SEP median for 2026 is 4.1%. June’s year-end 2026 median was 3.8%.
This week · not inside those minutes
Not scored as if the September minutes reacted to it.
- Wednesday Oct 28. Cash is open. The statement has not printed. No 10-year on this Robinhood tape.
- USO $166.79 at 10:01am, +1.78% vs Tuesday $163.88. Robinhood. Not Brent.
- CPI is out: 3.7% YoY, core 2.6%. PPI +1.3% m/m, +6.3% YoY. Sentiment final 48.0.
- Oct 12 OIS: 74% hold, 26% hike. Not restamped. Not the CME page.
Attribution ledger · dbot-lex-1.2
Statement rubric
+55
Different scale. Not subtracted from the lexicon.
September lexicon
—
unverified
Vs July, same lexicon
—
July +18.9. This is the only surprise.
No sentences scored. Quantifiers stay distinct: one, a couple, several, many, most, almost all.
Pre-event baseline · missed
No 1:59:59 print was captured.
Recorded on this browser when the book opens. That clock is not rewritten to 1:59:59. Prices, VWAP, gamma, and FedWatch were not backfilled.
Frozen rubric distribution
Stored once. Not overwritten by the minutes. Not comparable to the lexicon.
- Dovish surprise0.2%
- Mixed / expected8.1%
- Hawkish43.3%
- Very hawkish48.4%
Lexicon migration · July → September
Same function. This is the migration. The rubric is not a starting percent.
Waiting on both lexicon scores.
Confirmation · not the clock
NO SIGNAL
PRE EVENT · Before 2:00:00. Baseline is not frozen.
Baseline freezes at 1:59:59. The morning tape is not the first move.
Reversal detector is armed and dark. First move failed, hawkish first move rejected, and dovish reversal developing need a real first move, then a persisted turn. None of that has a baseline to measure.
SPY vs event VWAPNo tick
No 14:00:00 freeze. VWAP is not stored.
QQQ vs SPYNo tick
No post-release pair.
2-yearNo tick
No Wednesday 2-year print.
DollarNo tick
DXY is not on this tape.
10-yearNo tick
12:18 Yahoo print is before the release. Not an event reaction.
773 after the releaseNo tick
Session low tagged 773 before 2:00. That is not the event test.
CME FedWatchNo tick
API not connected. The minutes parser will not fill this check.
Delayed tape · not confirmation
SPY 761.38
2026-11-11T19:05:22.000Z · Yahoo Finance · not an exchange feed. Not versus the freeze.
QQQ 693.80
2026-11-11T19:05:19.000Z · Yahoo Finance · not an exchange feed. Not versus the freeze.
10-year 5.00
2026-11-11T18:50:14.000Z · Yahoo Finance · not an exchange feed. Not versus the freeze.
Dollar 102.93
2026-11-11T18:55:22.000Z · Yahoo Finance · not an exchange feed. Not versus the freeze.
Gold 3996.00
2026-11-11T18:55:15.000Z · Yahoo Finance · not an exchange feed. Not versus the freeze.
Brent 93.45
2026-11-11T18:55:15.000Z · Yahoo Finance · not an exchange feed. Not versus the freeze.
Trading bias · not an order
No trading signal. The minutes source is not in, or it failed validation.
The parser does not short SPY. It does not buy calls. A bias is a map of the text against an empty tape.
Event log on this browser: 0 snapshots. Model version is stored with each row. This is not a backtest.
Wednesday · the session
Cash is open. Flat versus Tuesday. Under the open. USO is bid. The statement has not printed.
10:01 · QQQ
$721.69 · +0.06%
Tuesday close $721.25. Range $720.30–$724.73. Under the open.
10:01 · SPX / NDX
7,728.97 · +0.08%
Nasdaq 100 29,679 · +0.09% vs Tuesday 29,651.44
10:01 · SPY
$770.13
Open $771.43 · high $771.70 · low $769.25 · Tuesday $769.66
Robinhood cash session, not the close. VIX 17.49 versus Tuesday 17.52. Quotes for RUT aren't available through the MCP. You can find RUT quotes in the Robinhood app.
Session · Wed 10:01am ET · Robinhood · cash session · not the close
Reference prints · not CME FedWatch
74 / 26
Oct 12 OIS snapshot. Hold 74%, hike 26%, implied +7bp. December 31 implied funds 4.25%. Not the CME page. Older clocks from last week are off this card.
Stale · Oct 12 · OIS snapshot · not the CME webpage · not restamped after CPI
September dots vs a derived December rate
Derived Dec rate 4.14% · median dot 4.1% · gap -4 bp
Gap = Fed median minus the midpoint-weighted 11:10 buckets. Negative means the reconstruction is slightly more hawkish than the dot. Not a CME implied rate.
- Unchanged 3.75–4.00 · 14.3% · mid 3.875
- +25bp 4.00–4.25 · 67.8% · mid 4.125
- +50bp 4.25–4.50 · 18% · mid 4.375
Snapshot · Sep 16 SEP · Federal Reserve SEP · not today’s odds
What the Fed knew then · what changed since
Sep 15–16 · in the minutes
- Unanimous hike to 3.75–4.00%.
- 12 of 18 saw one more 2026 hike. Median dot 4.1%.
- SEP: growth 2.3%, unemployment 4.1%, core PCE 3.4%.
- July core PCE 3.3% was the last inflation print they had in that meeting.
This week · not inside those minutes
- USO $166.79 at 10:01am, +1.78% vs Tuesday $163.88. Not Brent.
- CPI is already out at 3.7% YoY. Core 2.6%. PPI +1.3% m/m, +6.3% YoY. Sentiment 48.0.
- SPY $770.13. QQQ $721.69. DIA $523.77. The statement has not printed.
Treasury curve · mixed clocks
- 2-year4.79%Oct 6 · Not Wednesday
- 5-year—— · Not on this tape
- 10-year5.31%12:18pm ET · Yahoo · delayed
- 30-year5.71%Morning · Reuters snapshot · not noon
2s10s is not a same-day spread. The stored curve is not today’s yield. There is no 10-year on this Robinhood tape. 5s30s is blank.
Stale · Not today · Not a Robinhood quote · do not restamp an older yield as today
Oil and inflation pressure
Score withheld
Gasoline, natural gas, copper, gold, and breakevens are not on this tape. A 74/100 would be invented.
- USO$166.79 · Wed 10:01am ET
- Bid / ask$166.79 / $166.80
Robinhood. USO holds short-term WTI futures. It is not Brent and it is not the barrel. Wednesday 10:01am $166.79, +1.78% vs Tuesday $163.88.
Session · Wed 10:01am ET · Robinhood · cash session · WTI futures ETF · not Brent
Tape · what is not on it
SPY
$770.13
Low 769.25 · +0.06% vs Tue
STAMPED · Wed 10:01am ET · clock off
QQQ
$721.69
+0.06% vs Tue $721.25
STAMPED · Wed 10:01am ET · clock off
SPX
7,728.97
+0.08% vs Tue 7,722.60
STAMPED · Wed 10:01am ET · clock off
10-year
—
Not a Robinhood quote
STALE · Not today · clock off
USO
$166.79
+1.78% vs Tue $163.88
STAMPED · Wed 10:01am ET · clock off
USO
$166.79
Ask $166.80 · Tuesday close $163.88
STAMPED · Wed 10:01am ET · clock off
VIX
17.49
−0.03 vs Tue 17.52
STAMPED · Wed 10:01am ET · clock off
SPY, QQQ, DIA, IWM, and USO are Robinhood cash prints from Wednesday 10:01am. SPX, NDX, VIX, and DJX are Robinhood index values from that minute. Quotes for RUT aren't available through the MCP. You can find RUT quotes in the Robinhood app. Brent cash is not on this feed.
Cross-asset · only what is stamped
- No 10-year on this Robinhood tape. An older yield is not today’s yield.
- SPY +0.06% and QQQ +0.06% vs Tuesday. DIA +0.09%. Low on SPY was $769.25.
- USO $166.79, +1.78% vs Tuesday $163.88. Not Brent.
- 2-year, DXY, and gold — blank. No 6/7 score.
Levels that stack
Oct 12 walls were 775 / 776 / 780. They are not today’s book.
Last valid 770.13 is the 10:01am print, not the close. Low is 769.25. Tuesday close is 769.66. No dollar GEX.
GEX · two books, both morning
775 / 780
Aggregate SPY, all expiries, GEX Metrix, $B per 1% at heavy strikes. Flip 773, put wall 780, call wall 785. Positive gamma in that snapshot means compression was the morning regime — not a noon promise.
0DTE is not this dollar book. 0dteclose at 8:45am ET: put wall 775, call wall 780, max pain 778. No 0DTE dollar GEX is stored.
Stale · Mon 8:45am · Monday walls · put 775 · call 780 · pin 776 · not today’s book
Expected move · 0DTE straddle only
±$4.45
0.57% of a 775.98 spot at 8:45am ET. 0dteclose · CBOE delayed OI. This is not a live into-4pm implied move, and it is not ±0.85%.
Realized vs that straddle, and IV crush, stay blank until the close. Oct 28 event move is not on this tape.
Stale · 8:45am ET · 0dteclose · CBOE delayed OI
